2020/2021 KANCDSCO1005U Predictive Analytics
English Title  
Predictive Analytics 
Course information 

Language  English 
Course ECTS  7.5 ECTS 
Type  Mandatory offered as elective 
Level  Full Degree Master 
Duration  One Semester 
Start time of the course  Spring 
Timetable  Course schedule will be posted at calendar.cbs.dk 
Study board 
Master of Science (MSc) in Business Administration and Data
Science

Course coordinator  


The teacher need not be the course responsible person.  
Main academic disciplines  


Teaching methods  


Last updated on 24092020 
Relevant links 
Learning objectives  
To achieve the grade of 12, students should meet
the following learning objectives only with no or minor mistakes or
errors. By the end of the course the students will be able to:


Course prerequisites  
The course assumes familiarity with either a basic courses in statistics and regression analysis or a basic course in econometrics. Concepts such as random variables and familiarity with the principles of statistical hypotheses testing are assumed known.  
Prerequisites for registering for the exam (activities during the teaching period)  
Number of compulsory
activities which must be approved (see s. 13 of the Programme
Regulations): 2
Compulsory home
assignments
Each assignment is 13 pages in group of 14 students. The students have to get 2 out of 3 assignments approved in order to go to the exam. There will not be any extra attempts provided to the students before the ordinary exam. If a student cannot hand in due to documented illness, or if a student does not get the activity approved in spite of making a real attempt, then the student will be given one extra attempt before the reexam. Before the reexam, there will be one home assignment (max. 10 pages) which will cover 2 mandatory assignments. 

Examination  


Course content, structure and pedagogical approach  
Predictive analytics is a field that potentially can provide managers with very valuable tools for decision making. Both for sales variables of firms but also for financial variables like stock prices forecasting models and methods may be of interest, and during the course we will discuss challenges in relation to preparing relevant data for forecasting, choosing wellsuited models for analysis and we offer a range of tools for evaluating the forecasting performance of the models we present. In one of the lectures we introduce a tool that can be very helpful for model selection if ‘Big Data’ is available. This course is designed to provide both a theoretical foundation for predictive modeling but also handon experience with analyzing economic data. The models presented in the course will belong to different fields of statistics but in all cases the predictive power of the models will be in focus. Introducing statistical tools allows us to not only come up with an actual forecast of an economic variable of interest (think e.g. of sales) but also to assess the uncertainty of the forecast. Before a proper model can be selected it is of interest to discuss issues about data availability and also data reliability. Such topics are often not very much discussed in the text book but providing the students with examples of the types of challenges one may encounter – based on the research of the teachers – will try to fill this gap. 

Description of the teaching methods  
Lectures, inclass exercises during lectures, exercise classes with tools training.  
Feedback during the teaching period  
The main feedback element is the feedback
provided for the mandatory assignments. This feedback consists of
an indicative solution uploaded to Canvas followed by comments in
class. Also individual feedback is provided as comments in the
individual assignments are made available to the students and
students are encouraged to schedule a talk with the teacher about
mistakes.
Also feedback is available more generally on a continuous basis in class. This holds true for both lectures and exercise classes. In addition the students are very welcome during the office hours of the teacher. During office hours students can receive feedback both on their choice of data for the exam project, on technical issues in relation to the use of R in general (only to a limited degree for their exam project as no supervision is allowed. Minor questions can be answered if the teacher does not find it unfair to the other students). Also feedback on theoretical questions is provided during office hours. 

Student workload  


Expected literature  
The literature can be changed before the semester starts. Students are advised to find the final literature on Canvas before they buy the books.
Main text book(s) and articles: Hyndman, R.J & Athanasopoulos, G (2014): Forecasting: principles and Practice (HA)
Gujarati, D.N. and Porter, D.C. (2010). Essentials of Econometrics, 4th edition, McGrawHill, pp 201205 and 386397
Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F. (2014): Statistical model selection with ‘Big Data’. University of Oxford, Department of Economics, Discussion Paper Series, # 735 (or more recent text in this spirit). (DH)
More supplementary stuff: Buus Lassen, N., la Cour, L., Vatrapu, R. (2017), ‘Predictive Analytics with Social Media data’ in Sloan & QuanHaase ed. The SAGE Handbook of Social Media Research Methods, Chapter 20, pp 328341 (BCV)
