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2010/2011  KAN-CMP10  The Psychology of Decision Making

English Title
The Psychology of Decision Making

Course Information

Language English
Point 15 ECTS (450 SAT)
Type Mandatory
Level Full Degree Master
Duration One Semester
Course Period Autumn
Time Table Please see course schedule at e-Campus
Study Board
Study Board for BSc/MSc in Business Administration and Psychology
Course Coordinator
  • Bo Christensen
Main Category of the Course
  • Economics, macro economics and managerial economics
  • Business psychology
Last updated on 29 maj 2012
Learning Objectives
At the exam, the students must demonstrate the ability to:
  • Explain and apply the decision theory models and concepts that have been discussed in the course;
  • Analyze a decision situation, including an ability to recognize what you know and what you need to know, and discuss conclusions including limitations that affect those conclusions.
  • Recognize and discuss the implications of cognitive limitations and biases that affect decision making, as well as possible ways to overcome or limit them.
Prerequisite
None
Examination
The Psychology of Decision Making
The Psychology of Decision Making:
Exam Period Autumn Term
Examination
The examination is a twenty-four-hour, take-home, written exam, 8 pages. The examination is done individually. The examination is based on the syllabus read in "the psychology of decision making".
The student's performance is graded by a teacher and an internal examiner. The student's performance is graded according to the 7 step-scale.

Examination takes place in November. Make-up and re-examination takes place in February. Registration for make-up and re-examination does not take place automatically. The make-up and re-examination regulations are the same as for the ordinary exam unless the number of registred candidates for the make-up examination or re-examination warrants that it may most appropriately be held as an oral examination.
Prerequisites for Attending the Exam
Course Content

This course will provide students with a foundation in the psychology of judgment and decision making, especially with respect to business and economic decisions. The study of judgment and decision making is an inter-disciplinary field, drawing on insights from cognitive and social psychology, economics and statistics. We will cover some basic probability and statistics in order to understand normative theories of how people should make decisions, as well as descriptive theories of how they do make decisions. Students will develop an understanding of the cognitive processes and limitations that commonly affect peoples’ ability to intuitively apply normative theories and how these limitations can lead people to systematically draw conclusions and make decisions that are inconsistent or sub-optimal. We will discuss prescriptive theories that offer ways to overcome cognitive limitations and make decision processes more efficient and effective.

Teaching Methods
Teaching methods will take the form of lectures, case studies, class discussions and exercises, and small group work. Part of the class sessions are devoted to practical application of the course material. Students will achieve the most benefit in this course if all actively participate and contribute during class sessions.
Student Workload
Forelæsninger 39 hours
Forberedelse (herunder læsning af pensum) 281 hours
Forberedelse til og deltagelse i eksamen 100 hours
Literature

Bogkøb

The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making by Scott Plous, McGraw Hill, 1993

“Thinking Strategically”, Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, Norton, New York, 1991

“Games and Information”, Eric Rasmusen, Blackwell Publishing, 4th edition

Kompendium

Baron, J. 2008. Thinking and Deciding, Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp 5-22

Baron, J. 2008. Thinking and Deciding, Fourth Edition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Chapter 10

Dawes, R. 1979. The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. American Psychologist, July 1979, pp 571-582

Edmondson, A. 2002. Group Process in the Challenger Launch Decision (A), HBS Case 9-603-068

Edmondson, A. 2003. Process in the Challenger Launch Decision (B), HBS Case 9-603-070.

Hastie, R. and Dawes, R. (2010). Appendix in Rational Choice in an Uncertain World: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, 337-359. Fort Worth: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich

Janis, I. 1971. Groupthink. Psychology Today Magazine, Nov 1971, pp43-46, 74-76.

Maier, N. 1967. Assets and liabilities in group decision making. Psychological Review, 74, 4: 239-249.

Patterson, K., (2002, May 5). What doctors don’t know (almost everything). New York Times Magazine

Roberts M. and Sonnenberg, F. (2003). Ch 2 in Decision Making in Health Care: Theory, Psychology and Applications, G. Chapman (ed), Cambridge University Press

Tversky A., and Kahneman, D (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 76:2, 105-110.

Tversky A., and Kahneman, D (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.

Download

Brooks, D. 2008. The behavioral revolution. New York Times, Oct 27, 2008.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/opinion/28brooks.html

Gawande, A. (1999, February 8). The cancer cluster myth. New Yorker, 34-37. http://crab.rutgers.edu/~mbravo/cluster.pdf

Gibbons , Robert, "An Introduction to Applicable Game Theory," Journal of Economic Perspectives 11 (1997), 127-149

Krishnamurit, T., Eggers, S. and Fischhoff, B. 2008. The impact of over-the-counter availability of ‘Plan B’ on teens’ contraceptive decision making. Social Science and Medicine. 67:618-627.

Lohr. S. 2009. For Today’s Graduate, Just One Word: Statistics. NYTimes, Aug 5, 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/06/technology/06stats.html

Simon, H. (1979). Rational Decision Making in Business Organizations. The American Economic Review, v 69, No4 (Sept), 493-513.

Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing Science, 4, 199-214.