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2020/2021  BA-BISHO8001U  Freight market analysis and forecasting

English Title
Freight market analysis and forecasting

Course information
Language English
Course ECTS 7.5 ECTS
Type Mandatory
Level Bachelor
Duration One Quarter
Start time of the course Third Quarter, Third Quarter, Spring
Timetable Course schedule will be posted at calendar.cbs.dk
Max. participants 60
Study board
Study Board for BSc in International Shipping and Trade
Course coordinator
  • Liping Jiang - Department of Operations Management (OM)
Main academic disciplines
  • Globalisation and international business
  • Statistics and quantitative methods
  • Economics
Teaching methods
  • Face-to-face teaching
Last updated on 11-12-2020

Relevant links
Learning objectives
At the end of the course should be able to:
  • • Apply the data analysis process in shipping context
  • • Gain an understanding of different analytical tools and models
  • • Apply analytical tools and models to shipping business practices
  • • Turn data and analysis into an insightful market view and support decision-makings
Examination
Freight market analysis and forecasting:
Exam ECTS 7,5
Examination form Home assignment - written product
Individual or group exam Individual exam
Size of written product Max. 15 pages
Assignment type Written assignment
Duration 72 hours to prepare
Grading scale 7-point grading scale
Examiner(s) Internal examiner and second internal examiner
Exam period Spring and Spring
Make-up exam/re-exam
Same examination form as the ordinary exam
Re-examination when the regular examination is failed is a 20 minutes individual oral exam based upon the same group project with a 2 pages supplement.

Make-up examination when ill at the oral exam is a 20 minutes individual oral exam based upon the same group project.

Make-up examination when ill during the writing of the project is a 20 minutes individual oral exam based on the new written project to be handed in at a specified time and date.( if you are alone, the max number of pages should be 10)
Course content, structure and pedagogical approach

This course aims at offering a better understanding of economic variables and their underlying relationships that drive the shipping market. It focuses on applying analytical tools and models on maritime economic variables to support business decision-makings or conduct empirical research in shipping. It covers the basic theories of market equilibrium, risk and return, risk management and investment decision-making. More specifically, the course contains a basic introduction to topics such as:

 

  • The basics of shipping data analysis
  • Determining factors and dynamics of shipping freight rates
  • Freight rate forecasting
  • Pricing decisions in liner shipping
  • Strategic chartering decisions in tramp shipping
  • Ship price valuation and volatility
  • Options, appraisal and risk assessment of ship investment
  • Economics of energy-efficiency and fuel choices towards sustainable shipping 
  • Applications of big data analytics in shipping

 

Course structure:

  1. The basics of shipping data analysis
  • Data analysis process
  • Key maritime economic variables
  • Shipping data collection
  • Statistical tools and techniques

 

  1. Shipping freight market
  • Spot freight rate formation
  • Time charter rate formation
  • Dynamics of freight rates
  • Freight rates forecasting
  • Freight risk management

 

  1. Economics of shipping business
  • Pricing decisions in liner shipping
  • Strategic chartering decisions in tramp shipping

 

  1. Market for ships
  • Newbuilding markets
  • Secondhand markets
  • The determinants of ship price
  • Ship price volatility and risk management

 

  1. Ship investments
  • Sources of ship acquisition
  • Ship investment criteria
  • Newbuilding versus secondhand purchase
  • Timing of a ship investment and an exit
  • Shipping asset risk assessment and mitigation

 

  1. Sustainable shipping
  • The evaluation of energy-efficiency premium in market pricing
  • Economic consideration of fuel choices towards sustainable shipping 

 

  1. Big data analytics in shipping
  • Current big data applications in shipping
  • Case I: AIS data analysis
  • Case II: Vessel performance monitoring
Description of the teaching methods
The class time will be devoted to a combination of lectures, group discussions and case studies. A hands-on approach is followed, where students have the opportunity to apply shipping market data for empirical analysis. Examples are given in the maritime context throughout. Knowledge in Maritime Economics is a prerequisite for attending this course.
Feedback during the teaching period
Feedback will be given in class
Student workload
lectures 42 hours
exam preparation 164 hours
Expected literature

Grammenos, Costas (Eds). The Handbook of Maritime Economics and Business. Lloyd’s list, London, 2010.

Kavussanos, Manolis G., Visvikis, I.D. (Eds.). The International Handbook of Shipping Fiannce: Theory and Practice. Palgrave Macmillan, London (UK), 2016.

 

Other readings will be made available on Canvas.

Please note, minor changes might occur. The teacher will upload the final reading list to Canvas two weeks before the course starts.
Last updated on 11-12-2020