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2023/2024  BA-BHAAI1098U  Forecasting in Business and Economics

English Title
Forecasting in Business and Economics

Course information

Language English
Course ECTS 7.5 ECTS
Type Elective
Level Bachelor
Duration Summer
Start time of the course Summer, Summer, Summer
Timetable Course schedule will be posted at calendar.cbs.dk
Min. participants 30
Max. participants 100
Study board
Study Board for BSc in Economics and Business Administration
Course coordinator
  • Natalia Khorunzhina - Department of Economics (ECON)
For academic questions related to the course, please contact course coordinator Natalia Khorunzhina at nk.eco@cbs.dk
Main academic disciplines
  • Statistics and quantitative methods
  • Economics
Teaching methods
  • Blended learning
Last updated on 22-11-2023

Relevant links

Learning objectives
Upon the end of the course, the students will be able to:
  • Understand various important concepts of forecasting in the areas of economics and business
  • Understand different approaches to modeling trend, seasonality and persistence
  • Use the analytical tools that econometricians employ to analyze data
  • Tailor-make models for their applications and use them to produce forecasts in economics and business
  • Use packaged computer programs for the forecasting purpose
  • Complete basic programming tasks using programming language R
Course prerequisites
Forecasting of time series requires the use of econometric models. The course assumes familiarity and completed bachelor courses in economics, basic statistics or econometrics and regression analysis. However, the necessary econometrics will be reviewed.
Forecasting in Business and Economics:
Exam ECTS 7,5
Examination form Home assignment - written product
Individual or group exam Individual exam
Size of written product Max. 10 pages
Assignment type Report
Release of assignment The Assignment is released in Digital Exam (DE) at exam start
Duration Written product to be submitted on specified date and time.
Grading scale 7-point grading scale
Examiner(s) One internal examiner
Exam period Summer and Summer, Course and exam timetable is/will be available on https:/​/​www.cbs.dk/​en/​study/​cbs-summer-university/​courses-and-exams
Make-up exam/re-exam
Same examination form as the ordinary exam
1st retake: 72-hour, maximum 10-pages home assignment.
If the number of registered candidates for the make-up examination/re-take examination warrants that it may most appropriately be held as an oral examination, the programme office will inform the students that the make-up examination/re-take examination will be held as an oral examination instead.
Description of the exam procedure

Home assignment written in parallel with the course.

Course content, structure and pedagogical approach

Accurate forecasting of future events and their outcomes is a crucial input into a successful business or economic planning process. Forecasting is used to answer important questions, such as: How much profit will the business make? How much demand will there be for a product or service? How much will it cost to produce the product or offer the service? How much money will the company need to borrow? When and how will borrowed funds be repaid? Businesses must understand and use forecasting in order to answer these important questions. This course provides an introduction to the application of various forecasting techniques.
This course aims to introduce quantitative methods and techniques for time series modeling, analysis, and forecasting. Emphasis will also be put on the applications in economic and business related areas. Computing is an integral part of this course, therefore all students are expected to do data analysis, modeling and forecasting with computer programming software.
The focus of the course is to use past data to predict the future. The key concept is that there is an underlying process that gives rise to the data. Using statistical properties of that process, we can develop forecasts. Forecasting methodology will be presented in a lecture format in the first part of each class meeting. The application, however, is the centerpiece of the presentation. In the second part of the class meeting, students will work on in-class applications. 
We will start with simple models that are widely used in business and progress to modern methods that are used by professional forecasters and economists. We will be studying basic components of time-series data, such as trend, seasonal, and cyclical components, as well as basic model specification techniques, such as moving average and auto regressions, used in the forecasting of time-series. 
All forecasting methods will be illustrated with detailed real world applications designed to mimic typical forecasting situations. The course uses applications not simply to illustrate the methods but also drive home an important lesson, the limitations of forecasting, by presenting truly realistic examples in which not everything works perfectly! Examples of the applications include, but not limited to, forecasting retail sales, hotel occupancy, fishery output, consumer loan requests, predicting expansion of fast food chain stores, modeling and forecasting macroeconomic activity indices such as Gross Domestic Product, unemployment and inflation, modeling development of a small open economy, forecasting New York Stock Exchange index and currency exchange rates and many other applications.

Description of the teaching methods
Lectures and exercises in computer labs
Feedback during the teaching period
Office hours
Student workload
Classes 38 hours
Examination 20 hours
Preliminary assignment 20 hours
Preparation 121 hours
Feedback activity 7 hours
Further Information

6-week course.


Preliminary assignment: The Nordic Nine pre-course is foundational for the summer university and identical for all bachelor courses. Students will receive an invitation with all details by the end of May. The assignment has two parts. 1.) online lectures and tutorials that student can access at their own time and 2.) one synchronous workshop which will be offered both online and in-person at several dates and times before the official start of the summer university courses. Sign-up is first come first serve. All students are expected to complete this assignment before classes begin.



Expected literature

Diebold FX Forecasting in Economics, Business, Finance and Beyond. University of Pennsylvania, 2017.
- available on-line http:/​/​www.ssc.upenn.edu/​~fdiebold/​Teaching221/​Forecasting.pdf

Diebold FX Elements of Forecasting, 4th edition (Cengage Publishing, 2007).
- hard copy can be purchased used from on-line book stores
- available on-line http:/​/​www.ssc.upenn.edu/​~fdiebold/​Teaching221/​BookPhotocopy.pdf
- author's version http://www.ssc.upenn .edu/​~fdiebold/​Teaching221/​FullBook.pdf

Sometimes useful:

Bowerman R., O'Connell T., and Koehler AB, Forecasting, Time Series, and Regression: An Applied Approach, 4th edition (South-Western College Publishing, 2005 )

Hyndman, RJ, and Athanasopoulos, G., Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 2nd edition (OTexts: Melbourne, Australia, 2018)
- available on-line https://otexts.com/fpp3/

Last updated on 22-11-2023